![]() Those results don't necessarily tell us anything about what could happen in a federal election that might still be two years away. In 2022, after recruiting former provincial cabinet minister Charles Sousa to run, the Liberals won Mississauga-Lakeshore by 14 points. In 2021, the Liberals won that riding by six points. But it matches what happened six months ago in a byelection in the Ontario riding of Mississauga-Lakeshore - another urban/suburban riding that the Conservatives won in 2011. On its own, that result might not mean much. On Monday, Carr's son Ben won the riding by almost 32 points - matching the spread that Jim Carr had in 2015 when the Liberals won a majority government. Two years ago, the late Liberal minister Jim Carr won the riding by nearly 18 points. Monday night's result in Winnipeg South Centre was not close. WATCH: Trudeau welcomes new MPs following byelectionsĭuration 0:33 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau welcomed two new Liberal MPs to Ottawa after wins in byelections in Winnipeg and Montreal on Monday night. But it's not crazy to imagine the Conservative Party being competitive in such a riding right now - the Conservatives won the riding in 2011 when the Liberal vote collapsed nationally and Stephen Harper led the Conservatives to a majority government. O'Toole's basis for believing that is unclear. Potentially more interesting is the result in Winnipeg South Centre - less for the fact the Liberals won than for the margin of victory.Ī few hours before the polls closed on Monday, former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole appeared on CBC's Power & Politics and went so far as to suggest that the Conservatives could also win Winnipeg South Centre. The Liberals can take their own comfort from the result in Montreal's Westmount riding, where their traditional vote largely held up despite grumbling about the government's changes to language laws. But the fact the Conservative lead shrank by as much as it did might suggest there's more than internecine conflict to blame.Įither way, Oxford is a victory that Poilievre won't be able to brag about. Monday's result could end up looking like a fluke of fleeting circumstances. That might be chalked up to a messy nomination fight that split local Conservative supporters - Dave MacKenzie, the former Conservative MP for the riding, ended up endorsing the Liberal candidate. On Monday, the Conservative candidate won it by seven points. In the last four federal elections, the Conservatives have won that riding by an average of 25 points. The Conservatives also managed to hold on to the southwestern Ontario riding of Oxford, but only just. They were working to gain support in two federal byelection campaigns now underway. WATCH: Federal leaders descend on Manitoba to campaign in byelectionĭuration 1:49 The leaders of three federal political parties were in Manitoba today. Over the weekend, the Liberals released video of the Conservative candidate in Portage-Lisgar, Branden Leslie, saying that he would have voted against legislation that banned conversion therapy. ![]() The Conservatives might not have knocked Bernier out but they have at least knocked him down. And that might mean Poilievre now has to spend less time trying to appeal to Bernier's voters.īut the Conservatives may have done significant damage to themselves in the process. If Poilievre's leadership has so far been aimed at bringing back Conservative voters who went to the People's Party in 2021, Portage-Lisgar offers some evidence that he is succeeding. Analysis Suddenly, the World Economic Forum is a ballot box issue in a Manitoba byelectionĬonservative Leader Pierre Poilievre can take some comfort from the fact that Maxime Bernier couldn't manage more than 17 per cent in Portage-Lisgar - four points below what the People's Party candidate received there in 2021. ![]()
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